{"id":24615295,"date":"2026-09-25T11:02:27","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T09:02:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/migflug.com\/afterburner\/ryanair-oleary-no-fuel-surcharge-european-consolidation-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T11:03:11","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T09:03:11","slug":"ryanair-oleary-no-fuel-surcharge-european-consolidation-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/migflug.com\/afterburner\/de\/ryanair-oleary-no-fuel-surcharge-european-consolidation-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"O&#8217;Leary Predicts Europe Ends Up With Four Airlines"},"content":{"rendered":"<style>.et_pb_title_container h1.entry-title { padding-top: 40px !important; }<\/style>\r\n\r\n<p>Michael O&rsquo;Leary was asked on Wednesday whether Ryanair would add a fuel surcharge. He said no. Then he explained, without apparent embarrassment, that he would quite like jet fuel to get more expensive, because it would kill his competitors faster.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>It is worth quoting the man directly, because paraphrase softens him.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<div style=\"background:#f8f9fa;border-left:4px solid #d32f2f;padding:20px 22px;margin:18px 0 24px;font-size:16px;line-height:1.7;display:flex;gap:20px;align-items:flex-start\"><div><em>&ldquo;I very much hope that jet prices will rise faster into next year because that will accelerate the extent to which other airlines will fail.&rdquo;<\/em><div style=\"margin-top:10px;font-size:14px;color:#555\"><strong>Michael O&rsquo;Leary<\/strong> &mdash; Chief Executive, Ryanair, speaking to reporters on 23 September 2026<\/div><\/div><a href=\"https:\/\/migflug.com\/afterburner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/09\/michael-oleary-ryanair-chief-executive.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"flex-shrink:0;order:-1\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/migflug.com\/afterburner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/09\/michael-oleary-ryanair-chief-executive.jpg\" alt=\"Michael O&rsquo;Leary\" style=\"width:96px;height:96px;border-radius:50%;object-fit:cover;object-position:top;display:block;border:2px solid #ddd\"><\/a><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<div style=\"background:#f1f3f6;border-left:4px solid #5C91FF;padding:18px 22px;margin:26px 0\"><p style=\"margin:0 0 10px;font-weight:700;color:#0d1117;font-size:17px\">Quick Facts<\/p><ul style=\"margin:0;padding-left:20px;font-size:15px;line-height:1.7;color:#333\"><li style=\"margin:0 0 6px\"><strong>Who:<\/strong> Michael O&rsquo;Leary, Ryanair chief executive<\/li><li style=\"margin:0 0 6px\"><strong>When:<\/strong> Wednesday 23 September 2026, speaking to reporters<\/li><li style=\"margin:0 0 6px\"><strong>The pledge:<\/strong> No Ryanair fuel surcharge, whatever happens to jet fuel prices<\/li><li style=\"margin:0 0 6px\"><strong>The prediction:<\/strong> Competitor fares up 10 to 20 per cent next summer<\/li><li style=\"margin:0 0 6px\"><strong>The forecast cut:<\/strong> Ryanair&rsquo;s fiscal 2027 passenger target trimmed from 216 million to 214 million<\/li><li style=\"margin:0 0 6px\"><strong>Hedging:<\/strong> Most airlines are well hedged through summer 2026; Ryanair has only a small percentage of unhedged exposure<\/li><li style=\"margin:0 0 6px\"><strong>The endgame he sees:<\/strong> Europe consolidating into four large airlines: British Airways, Lufthansa, Air France and Ryanair<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h2 style=\"padding-top:22px\">Why a surcharge is a confession<\/h2>\r\n\r\n<p>A fuel surcharge looks like a pricing mechanism. In practice it is an admission that an airline did not hedge well enough and cannot absorb a shock inside its cost base. O&rsquo;Leary&rsquo;s formulation was characteristically unkind: Ryanair will not levy a fuel surcharge, but the legacy carriers certainly will next summer.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>Behind the rhetoric sits a real structural advantage. Ryanair hedges heavily and years ahead, which converts a volatile input into a known number. It also runs one aircraft type, high utilisation and the lowest unit costs in Europe, so the same fuel price increase consumes a smaller share of its margin than it does of a network carrier&rsquo;s. He acknowledged that most airlines are well hedged through summer 2026, which is the honest caveat: the pain he is describing arrives later, when existing hedges roll off at higher prices.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\" style=\"margin:0 0 24px;width:100%\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"skip-lazy\" data-no-lazy=\"1\" loading=\"eager\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/migflug.com\/afterburner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/09\/ryanair-boeing-737-800-ei-dwt-landing-barcelona.jpg\" alt=\"A Ryanair Boeing 737-800 on short final to land at Barcelona\" style=\"width:100%;height:auto;max-width:100%;display:block\"><figcaption style=\"font-size:13px;color:#777;text-align:center;margin-top:6px;font-style:italic\">One type, flown hard. Ryanair&rsquo;s single-fleet model is the reason a fuel spike hurts it less than it hurts a network carrier running six aircraft types. Photo: Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h2 style=\"padding-top:22px\">The four-airline Europe<\/h2>\r\n\r\n<p>The genuinely interesting claim was not about surcharges at all. Asked where this leads, O&rsquo;Leary said loss-making airlines will fail and that it will accelerate the consolidation of Europe into four large airlines: British Airways, Lufthansa, Air France and Ryanair.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>Read carefully, that list is three groups and one airline. BA sits inside IAG alongside Iberia, Vueling and Aer Lingus. Lufthansa Group holds Swiss, Austrian, Brussels Airlines and ITA. Air France is half of Air France-KLM. Ryanair is the only name on the list that is genuinely a single carrier, which is rather the point he is making about cost structure.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>He has predicted this before and the direction has broadly gone his way. European consolidation has proceeded through failure and absorption rather than through mergers of equals, and the past two years have supplied plenty of examples of small carriers running out of road.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>Whether it really ends at four is another matter. Wizz Air, easyJet, Turkish Airlines and a set of well-capitalised national carriers are not obviously about to disappear, and competition regulators have been notably unenthusiastic about letting the big groups absorb everything they would like to. The forecast is best read as a competitive position stated as a prophecy.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>The immediately checkable part is the fare prediction. If rival European fares are up 10 to 20 per cent next summer and Ryanair&rsquo;s are not, he was right. That one can be measured.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<div style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;height:0;overflow:hidden;margin:24px 0\"><iframe class=\"skip-lazy\" data-no-lazy=\"1\" loading=\"eager\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/kaMLjqX1TeA\" style=\"position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;border:0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p style=\"font-size:13px;color:#777;text-align:center;margin-top:-10px;font-style:italic\">O&rsquo;Leary making an earlier version of the same argument about oil prices and competitors. The interview is from 2019, and the position has not softened.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><em>Sources: Reuters, via Cyprus Mail and Euronext; aeroTELEGRAPH; Hospitality Ireland.<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<style>.mfq{margin:34px 0 8px}.mfq h2{font:26px\/1.3 \"Gilroy semiBold\",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:#0d1117;padding-top:22px;margin:0 0 6px}.mfq .qa details{border-top:1px solid #5C91FF;margin:0;padding:0}.mfq .qa details:last-of-type{border-bottom:1px solid #e2e7ee}.mfq .qa summary{cursor:pointer;list-style:none;display:flex;justify-content:space-between;align-items:center;gap:16px;padding:22px 26px;font:18px\/1.7 \"Gilroy semiBold\",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:#0d1117}.mfq .qa summary::-webkit-details-marker{display:none}.mfq .qa summary::after{content:\"+\";font:24px Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#3568e0;flex:0 0 auto}.mfq .qa details[open] summary::after{content:\"\\2013\"}.mfq .qa details:hover summary{color:#3568e0}.mfq .qa .a{font:16px\/1.7 \"Gilroy regular\",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:#454e5e;padding:0 26px 24px}.mfq .qa .a a{color:#3568e0}@media(max-width:680px){.mfq .qa summary{padding:18px 14px;font-size:17px}.mfq .qa .a{padding:0 14px 20px}}<\/style>\r\n\r\n\r\n<section class=\"mfq\"><h2>Frequently Asked Questions<\/h2><div class=\"qa\"><details open><summary>Is Ryanair adding a fuel surcharge?<\/summary><div class=\"a\">No. Michael O&amp;rsquo;Leary said on 23 September 2026 that Ryanair will not levy a fuel surcharge despite rising jet fuel prices, and predicted that legacy carriers will introduce one next summer instead.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Why can Ryanair avoid a fuel surcharge?<\/summary><div class=\"a\">It hedges jet fuel heavily and years in advance, converting a volatile cost into a known one, and it runs a single aircraft type at high utilisation with the lowest unit costs in Europe. The same price rise therefore eats a smaller share of its margin.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>How much will airline fares rise in 2027?<\/summary><div class=\"a\">O&amp;rsquo;Leary predicted competitor fares would rise by 10 to 20 per cent next summer, while Ryanair holds its own. That is a forecast from an interested party rather than an industry projection, and it will be straightforward to check next year.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Which four airlines does O&amp;rsquo;Leary think will survive in Europe?<\/summary><div class=\"a\">He named British Airways, Lufthansa, Air France and Ryanair. Three of those are group names rather than single airlines: BA sits within IAG, Lufthansa Group owns Swiss, Austrian, Brussels and ITA, and Air France is half of Air France-KLM.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Has Ryanair cut its passenger forecast?<\/summary><div class=\"a\">Yes. The fiscal 2027 target was trimmed from 216 million passengers to 214 million, which O&amp;rsquo;Leary attributed to higher fuel costs. It is a small reduction on a very large number, but it is a reduction.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>What is a fuel surcharge and why do airlines use one?<\/summary><div class=\"a\">It is a separate fee added to a fare to pass higher fuel costs to passengers. Airlines use it when a fuel price rise cannot be absorbed within the existing cost base, which usually means hedging did not cover the increase.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Is European airline consolidation actually happening?<\/summary><div class=\"a\">Broadly yes, though through failure and absorption rather than mergers of equals. Several smaller carriers have collapsed in recent years. Whether the market narrows to only four groups is far less certain, given Wizz Air, easyJet, Turkish Airlines and competition regulators.<\/div><\/details><\/div><\/section>\r\n\r\n\r\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"FAQPage\",\"mainEntity\":[{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Is Ryanair adding a fuel surcharge?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"No. Michael O&rsquo;Leary said on 23 September 2026 that Ryanair will not levy a fuel surcharge despite rising jet fuel prices, and predicted that legacy carriers will introduce one next summer instead.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Why can Ryanair avoid a fuel surcharge?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"It hedges jet fuel heavily and years in advance, converting a volatile cost into a known one, and it runs a single aircraft type at high utilisation with the lowest unit costs in Europe. 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Whether the market narrows to only four groups is far less certain, given Wizz Air, easyJet, Turkish Airlines and competition regulators.\"}}]}<\/script><div style=\"background:#f0f4ff;border-left:4px solid #5C91FF;padding:16px 20px;margin:32px 0 8px\"><p style=\"margin:0 0 8px;font-weight:600;color:#333\">Related Posts<\/p><p style=\"margin:4px 0\"><a href=\"https:\/\/migflug.com\/afterburner\/united-american-delta-pilot-pay-465-hour-big-three-realignment-2026\/\">$465 an Hour: The Big 3 Just Rewrote U.S. Airline Pilot Pay<\/a><\/p><p style=\"margin:4px 0\"><a href=\"https:\/\/migflug.com\/afterburner\/why-airlines-kill-their-longest-routes-ultra-long-haul-economics\/\">Why Airlines Kill Their Longest Routes: The Ultra-Long-Haul Maths<\/a><\/p><\/div>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ryanair will not add a fuel surcharge. Michael O\u2019Leary would, however, like jet fuel to get more expensive, because of what it would do to everybody else.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":24614858,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[665,670],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24615295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-aviation-world","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ryanair Rules Out a Fuel Surcharge | MiGFlug<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"O\u2019Leary says Ryanair will not add a fuel surcharge, expects rivals to raise fares 10 to 20 per cent, and sees Europe narrowing to four airlines.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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