{"id":20016968,"date":"2026-09-04T09:48:12","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T07:48:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/migflug.com\/afterburner\/f-15ex-eagle-ii-267-jets-pentagon-report-risks-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-09-04T09:53:09","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T07:53:09","slug":"f-15ex-eagle-ii-267-jets-pentagon-report-risks-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/migflug.com\/afterburner\/it\/f-15ex-eagle-ii-267-jets-pentagon-report-risks-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"F-15EX Eagle II: The Pentagon&#8217;s Warning on Doubling the Buy"},"content":{"rendered":"<style>.et_pb_title_container h1.entry-title { padding-top: 40px !important; }<\/style>\n<!-- mfsh:top -->\n\n<style>\n.mfsh-trigger{display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:10px;height:44px;padding:0 18px;margin:0 0 26px;border:2px solid 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The Pentagon has just published the fine print, and it is a reminder that in defence procurement, doubling an order is never simply a matter of writing a bigger cheque.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>Earlier this year the U.S. Air Force announced it would grow its planned <a href=\"https:\/\/migflug.com\/aircraft\/f-15-eagle\/\">F-15<\/a>EX Eagle II fleet from 129 aircraft to 267, more than doubling the buy in order to replace the ageing F-15E Strike Eagle. The August selected acquisition report for the programme, reported on 2 September, sets out what that decision actually costs in risk.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>The short version: more lots, older suppliers, a production line that is already late, and a bill nobody has finished adding up.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<div style=\"background:#f5f5f5;padding:20px 24px;margin:26px 0;border-left:4px solid #5C91FF\"><p style=\"margin:0 0 10px;font-weight:700;font-size:17px;color:#0d1117\">Quick Facts<\/p><table style=\"width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:15px\"><tr><td style=\"padding:5px 12px 5px 0;color:#555;vertical-align:top;width:38%\"><strong>Aircraft<\/strong><\/td><td style=\"padding:5px 0;color:#222\">Boeing F-15EX Eagle II<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"padding:5px 12px 5px 0;color:#555;vertical-align:top;width:38%\"><strong>Old programme of record<\/strong><\/td><td style=\"padding:5px 0;color:#222\">129 aircraft<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"padding:5px 12px 5px 0;color:#555;vertical-align:top;width:38%\"><strong>New programme of record<\/strong><\/td><td style=\"padding:5px 0;color:#222\">267 aircraft<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"padding:5px 12px 5px 0;color:#555;vertical-align:top;width:38%\"><strong>Production lots<\/strong><\/td><td style=\"padding:5px 0;color:#222\">12, up from 8<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"padding:5px 12px 5px 0;color:#555;vertical-align:top;width:38%\"><strong>Manufacturer<\/strong><\/td><td style=\"padding:5px 0;color:#222\">Boeing, St. Louis, Missouri<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"padding:5px 12px 5px 0;color:#555;vertical-align:top;width:38%\"><strong>Required build rate<\/strong><\/td><td style=\"padding:5px 0;color:#222\">2 aircraft per month<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"padding:5px 12px 5px 0;color:#555;vertical-align:top;width:38%\"><strong>Lot 3 delivery<\/strong><\/td><td style=\"padding:5px 0;color:#222\">6 of 12 jets by end of 2026, against a contract for all 12<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"padding:5px 12px 5px 0;color:#555;vertical-align:top;width:38%\"><strong>Lot 4 delivery<\/strong><\/td><td style=\"padding:5px 0;color:#222\">Slipped from 2026 to calendar 2028<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"padding:5px 12px 5px 0;color:#555;vertical-align:top;width:38%\"><strong>First overseas base<\/strong><\/td><td style=\"padding:5px 0;color:#222\">Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan<\/td><\/tr><\/table><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h2 style=\"padding-top:22px\">Four more lots, and a technical refresh nobody has priced<\/h2>\r\n\r\n<p>The previous acquisition strategy ran to eight production lots. The new one runs to twelve. That stretches the F-15EX line years further into the future, and the report is blunt about what that means: Boeing will likely have to conduct \u201ca major technical refresh\u201d to cope with diminishing manufacturing sources and material shortages.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>Put plainly, the parts that go into an Eagle II today will not all still be in production when the last one is built. The radar, the mission computer, the electronic warfare suite and the engines could all become obsolete inside the programme\u2019s new lifespan. Replacing them mid-run is, in the report\u2019s own words, \u201ca significant redesign effort.\u201d<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<div style=\"background:#f8f9fa;border-left:4px solid #5C91FF;padding:20px 22px;margin:18px 0 24px;font-size:16px;line-height:1.7;display:flex;gap:20px;align-items:flex-start\"><div><em>&ldquo;This provides a structured, risk-reduced pathway for flight testing and fielding these new capabilities without causing a gap in the production line.&rdquo;<\/em><div style=\"margin-top:10px;font-size:14px;color:#555\"><strong>F-15EX Selected Acquisition Report<\/strong> &mdash; U.S. Department of Defense, released August 2026, as reported by Air &amp; Space Forces Magazine<\/div><\/div><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>The programme\u2019s answer is to fold those upgraded subsystems into scheduled operational flight program releases between 2031 and 2035, so that testing and fielding happen without stopping the line. It is a sensible plan. It is also a plan that assumes eight more years of stable funding, stable suppliers and stable requirements.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\" style=\"margin:0 0 24px;width:100%\"><img data-opt-id=1124781269  fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"skip-lazy\" data-no-lazy=\"1\" loading=\"eager\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/ml5psubhxdln.i.optimole.com\/cb:0e0_.b970\/w:auto\/h:auto\/q:mauto\/ig:avif\/https:\/\/migflug.com\/afterburner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/09\/f-15ex-eagle-ii-crew-boeing-st-louis-ramp.jpg\" alt=\"F-15EX Eagle II crew on the ramp at Boeing St. Louis before departure\" style=\"width:100%;height:auto;max-width:100%;display:block\"><figcaption style=\"font-size:13px;color:#777;text-align:center;margin-top:6px;font-style:italic\">An F-15EX Eagle II at Boeing\u2019s St. Louis facility as the first Kadena-bound Eagle II prepared to depart for Portland, 28 August 2026. U.S. Air Force photo via DVIDS.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h2 style=\"padding-top:22px\">The bill has not been added up yet<\/h2>\r\n\r\n<p>Here is the line that ought to make a budget analyst sit up. Programme officials say they have not yet fully estimated what extending production will cost. They have started a rapid cost estimation process to feed the fiscal 2028 request, and in the meantime are using government estimates for initial budget sizing while \u201ccommissioning formal studies to obtain preliminary cost and schedule estimates from the contractors.\u201d<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>The Air Force has committed to 138 additional fighters and is now working out what they cost. That is not unusual in American defence procurement. It is not reassuring either.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>Boeing declined to comment on the concerns raised in the report.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<h2 style=\"padding-top:22px\">A strike that will not be recovered from<\/h2>\r\n\r\n<p>The near-term problem is more concrete. From August to November 2025, a strike shut down Boeing\u2019s St. Louis plant. The report says the resulting slip is permanent: Boeing\u2019s contract required all 12 Lot 3 jets to be delivered in early calendar 2026, and only six will arrive by the end of the year. The report calls these \u201cunrecoverable delays.\u201d<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>Parts shortages compound it. The most acute are the Elbit-built large area displays and low-profile head-up displays that give the Eagle II its glass cockpit, General Electric F110 engines, and Collins-made cartridges for the ejection system. Stockpiling during the strike covered Lot 1B. Later lots are exposed, and the Pentagon has resorted to borrowing-and-payback arrangements with foreign military sales customers to keep critical parts flowing.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<div style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;height:0;overflow:hidden;margin:24px 0\"><iframe class=\"skip-lazy\" data-no-lazy=\"1\" loading=\"eager\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/T2lILzBhCJI\" style=\"position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;border:0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>Boeing on the F-15EX production line in St. Louis, the plant that now has to double its output rate.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<h2 style=\"padding-top:22px\">Kadena keeps waiting<\/h2>\r\n\r\n<p>The delays land hardest in Okinawa. Kadena Air Base lost its permanently assigned F-15C and D Eagles when the Air Force began retiring them in November 2022, and has been covered by a rotating cast of visiting fighter squadrons ever since. The F-15EXs meant to end that arrangement were supposed to start arriving in spring 2026. They are now not expected before the first quarter of fiscal 2027 at the earliest.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>Lot 4 is worse: deliveries that should have begun in 2026 are now forecast for calendar 2028. To catch up at all, Boeing has to hit two aircraft a month.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>The programme office is working with Air Combat Command and the National Guard Bureau on a bridging strategy \u2014 keeping older jets or alternative force structures available until the Eagle IIs actually turn up. Which is the real story buried in this report. The Air Force is not short of a plan for the F-15EX. It is short of F-15EXs.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<style>.mfq{margin:34px 0 8px}.mfq h2{font:26px\/1.3 \"Gilroy semiBold\",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:#0d1117;padding-top:22px;margin:0 0 6px}.mfq .qa details{border-top:1px solid #5C91FF;margin:0;padding:0}.mfq .qa details:last-of-type{border-bottom:1px solid #e2e7ee}.mfq .qa summary{cursor:pointer;list-style:none;display:flex;justify-content:space-between;align-items:center;gap:16px;padding:22px 26px;font:18px\/1.7 \"Gilroy semiBold\",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:#0d1117}.mfq .qa summary::-webkit-details-marker{display:none}.mfq .qa summary::after{content:\"+\";font:24px Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#3568e0;flex:0 0 auto}.mfq .qa details[open] summary::after{content:\"\\2013\"}.mfq .qa details:hover summary{color:#3568e0}.mfq .qa .a{font:16px\/1.7 \"Gilroy regular\",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:#454e5e;padding:0 26px 24px}.mfq .qa .a a{color:#3568e0}@media(max-width:680px){.mfq .qa summary{padding:18px 14px;font-size:17px}.mfq .qa .a{padding:0 14px 20px}}<\/style>\r\n\r\n\r\n<section class=\"mfq\"><h2>Frequently Asked Questions<\/h2><div class=\"qa\"><details open><summary>How many F-15EX fighters is the US Air Force buying?<\/summary><div class=\"a\">The Air Force plans to buy 267 F-15EX Eagle IIs, up from a previous plan of 129. The increase was announced as part of the fiscal 2027 budget rollout, driven by a decision to recapitalise the older F-15E Strike Eagle fleet rather than let it age out.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>What risks did the Pentagon report identify with the F-15EX?<\/summary><div class=\"a\">The F-15EX selected acquisition report, released in August 2026, flagged \u201cnew cost and schedule uncertainties\u201d tied to the larger buy. It warned that key systems including the radar, mission computer, electronic warfare suite and engines could become obsolete over a longer production run, requiring what it called a \u201csignificant redesign effort.\u201d It also noted that the full cost of extending production has not yet been estimated.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Why is the F-15EX behind schedule?<\/summary><div class=\"a\">A strike at Boeing\u2019s St. Louis plant from August to November 2025 halted production. According to the acquisition report, Boeing was contracted to deliver all 12 Lot 3 jets in early calendar 2026 but will manage only six by the end of 2026. The report describes the resulting slip as \u201cunrecoverable delays.\u201d<\/div><\/details><details><summary>What parts shortages are affecting F-15EX production?<\/summary><div class=\"a\">The acquisition report named Elbit-made large area displays and low-profile head-up displays, General Electric F110 engines, and Collins-made cartridges for the ejection system as the most acute shortages. Stockpiling during the 2025 strike covered Lot 1B, but the risk remains for later lots.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>When will F-15EX fighters arrive at Kadena?<\/summary><div class=\"a\">The first Lot 3 jets destined for overseas basing are not expected to be fielded until at least the first quarter of fiscal 2027. Those aircraft are earmarked for Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, Japan, where they were originally supposed to start arriving in spring 2026.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>How fast can Boeing build the F-15EX?<\/summary><div class=\"a\">Boeing needs to reach a rate of two F-15EX aircraft per month to meet its delivery requirements, roughly double the rate it has been running. Lot 4 deliveries, which should have begun in 2026, are now not expected to start until calendar 2028.<\/div><\/details><\/div><\/section>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"FAQPage\",\"mainEntity\":[{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"How many F-15EX fighters is the US Air Force buying?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"The Air Force plans to buy 267 F-15EX Eagle IIs, up from a previous plan of 129. The increase was announced as part of the fiscal 2027 budget rollout, driven by a decision to recapitalise the older F-15E Strike Eagle fleet rather than let it age out.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What risks did the Pentagon report identify with the F-15EX?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"The F-15EX selected acquisition report, released in August 2026, flagged \u201cnew cost and schedule uncertainties\u201d tied to the larger buy. It warned that key systems including the radar, mission computer, electronic warfare suite and engines could become obsolete over a longer production run, requiring what it called a \u201csignificant redesign effort.\u201d It also noted that the full cost of extending production has not yet been estimated.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Why is the F-15EX behind schedule?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"A strike at Boeing\u2019s St. Louis plant from August to November 2025 halted production. According to the acquisition report, Boeing was contracted to deliver all 12 Lot 3 jets in early calendar 2026 but will manage only six by the end of 2026. The report describes the resulting slip as \u201cunrecoverable delays.\u201d\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What parts shortages are affecting F-15EX production?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"The acquisition report named Elbit-made large area displays and low-profile head-up displays, General Electric F110 engines, and Collins-made cartridges for the ejection system as the most acute shortages. Stockpiling during the 2025 strike covered Lot 1B, but the risk remains for later lots.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"When will F-15EX fighters arrive at Kadena?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"The first Lot 3 jets destined for overseas basing are not expected to be fielded until at least the first quarter of fiscal 2027. 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Lot 4 deliveries, which should have begun in 2026, are now not expected to start until calendar 2028.\"}}]}<\/script><p><em>Sources: Air &amp; Space Forces Magazine, U.S. Department of Defense F-15EX Selected Acquisition Report (FY2027 President\u2019s Budget), U.S. Air Force \/ DVIDS.<\/em><\/p>\n<!-- mfsh:bottom -->\n\n<button type=\"button\" class=\"mfsh-trigger mfsh-bottom\" data-mfsh-placement=\"bottom\" aria-haspopup=\"dialog\"><svg><use href=\"#mfsh-i-share\"\/><\/svg>Share this story<\/button>\n\n<!-- \/mfsh:bottom -->\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<div style=\"background:#f0f4ff;border-left:4px solid #5C91FF;padding:16px 20px;margin:32px 0 8px\"><p style=\"margin:0 0 8px;font-weight:600;color:#333\">Related Posts<\/p><p style=\"margin:4px 0\"><a href=\"https:\/\/migflug.com\/afterburner\/kadena-first-f-15ex-eagle-ii-breaks-cover-2026\/\">Kadena\u2019s First New Eagle Shows Its Colors<\/a><\/p><p style=\"margin:4px 0\"><a href=\"https:\/\/migflug.com\/afterburner\/usaf-alternative-engine-rfi-f-15ex-f-16-2026\/\">A New Engine War for the F-15EX and F-16<\/a><\/p><p style=\"margin:4px 0\"><a href=\"https:\/\/migflug.com\/afterburner\/poland-f-15ex-boeing-eagle-crest-contract-warsaw-denies-2026\/\">Poland and the F-15EX: Warsaw Denies a $131 Billion Hint<\/a><\/p><\/div>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A new Pentagon acquisition report says the Air Force&#8217;s decision to grow the F-15EX fleet from 129 to 267 jets brings unpriced costs, obsolescence risk and delays Boeing cannot recover from.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":20016555,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[664,670],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20016968","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-military-aviation","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>F-15EX Eagle II: Pentagon Warning on Doubling the Buy | MiGFlug<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A new Pentagon report says doubling the F-15EX Eagle II buy to 267 jets brings unpriced costs, obsolescence risk and delays Boeing cannot recover from.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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