{"id":24239478,"date":"2026-09-23T14:05:16","date_gmt":"2026-09-23T12:05:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/migflug.com\/afterburner\/eda-esoca-study-an-124-modernisation-european-c-17-replacement-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-09-23T14:05:48","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T12:05:48","slug":"eda-esoca-study-an-124-modernisation-european-c-17-replacement-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/migflug.com\/afterburner\/it\/eda-esoca-study-an-124-modernisation-european-c-17-replacement-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s Airlift Gap: EDA Weighs An-124 Refit or a New C-17"},"content":{"rendered":"<style>.et_pb_title_container h1.entry-title { padding-top: 40px !important; }<\/style>\r\n\r\n<p>There are two aircraft in the world that can pick up something genuinely enormous and fly it a very long way. One is Ukrainian and first flew in 1982. The other is American and stopped being built in 2015.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>Europe owns almost none of either, and the arrangements that let it borrow them are running out.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>Last week the European Defence Agency published the conclusions of an eighteen-month study into what to do about that. The answer, stripped of diplomatic padding, is that Europe will have to either rebuild somebody else\u2019s aeroplane or design its own \u2014 and that member states have until roughly the early 2030s to decide which.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<div style=\"background:#f4f6f8;border-left:4px solid #5C91FF;padding:18px 22px;margin:26px 0\"><p style=\"margin:0 0 10px;font-weight:700;font-size:17px;color:#0d1117\">Quick Facts<\/p><table style=\"width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:15px;line-height:1.6\"><tr><td style=\"padding:4px 12px 4px 0;color:#555;vertical-align:top;white-space:nowrap\"><strong>The study<\/strong><\/td><td style=\"padding:4px 0;color:#222\">European System for Outsized Cargo Airlift (ESOCA), 18 months of work<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"padding:4px 12px 4px 0;color:#555;vertical-align:top;white-space:nowrap\"><strong>Coordinated by<\/strong><\/td><td style=\"padding:4px 0;color:#222\">Airbus Defence and Space, with Leonardo and Safran among the participants<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"padding:4px 12px 4px 0;color:#555;vertical-align:top;white-space:nowrap\"><strong>Commissioned by<\/strong><\/td><td style=\"padding:4px 0;color:#222\">European Defence Agency (EDA)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"padding:4px 12px 4px 0;color:#555;vertical-align:top;white-space:nowrap\"><strong>The options<\/strong><\/td><td style=\"padding:4px 0;color:#222\">Deep modernisation of the An-124 fleet, a new European C-17 replacement, or both<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"padding:4px 12px 4px 0;color:#555;vertical-align:top;white-space:nowrap\"><strong>Next step<\/strong><\/td><td style=\"padding:4px 0;color:#222\">EU member states discuss the findings in Brussels in October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"padding:4px 12px 4px 0;color:#555;vertical-align:top;white-space:nowrap\"><strong>SALIS contract<\/strong><\/td><td style=\"padding:4px 0;color:#222\">Antonov Airlines charter arrangement for NATO states expires in the early 2030s<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"padding:4px 12px 4px 0;color:#555;vertical-align:top;white-space:nowrap\"><strong>EU C-17 fleet<\/strong><\/td><td style=\"padding:4px 0;color:#222\">Three aircraft based in Hungary, expected to reach end of service life in the 2040s<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"padding:4px 12px 4px 0;color:#555;vertical-align:top;white-space:nowrap\"><strong>An-124 fleet at Leipzig\/Halle<\/strong><\/td><td style=\"padding:4px 0;color:#222\">Five Antonov Airlines aircraft, average age just under 37 years<\/td><\/tr><\/table><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h2 style=\"padding-top:22px\">The problem nobody wanted to own<\/h2>\r\n\r\n<p>This is not a new discovery. EU member states wrote down the risk years ago in a defence cooperation paper, noting a potential gap in strategic air transport for outsize cargo, and observing that you cannot simply go and buy aircraft like the Antonov An-124 because nobody makes them.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<div style=\"background:#f8f9fa;border-left:4px solid #1565c0;padding:20px 22px;margin:18px 0 24px;font-size:16px;line-height:1.7;display:flex;gap:20px;align-items:flex-start\"><div><em>&ldquo;The A400M fleet can partially mitigate this risk, but is limited in terms of size and payload.&rdquo;<\/em><div style=\"margin-top:10px;font-size:14px;color:#555\"><strong>EU member states<\/strong> &mdash; Defence cooperation paper, quoted by aeroTELEGRAPH (translated)<\/div><\/div><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>The A400M is a genuinely good aeroplane and a European success story, but it was designed as a tactical airlifter. It lands on short strips near the fight. It was never meant to swallow a Chinook whole.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\" style=\"margin:0 0 24px;width:100%\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"skip-lazy\" data-no-lazy=\"1\" loading=\"eager\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/migflug.com\/afterburner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/09\/an-124-nose-loading-hh-60g-pave-hawk-helicopter-outsize-cargo.jpg\" alt=\"A helicopter being loaded through the nose door of an An-124 outsize cargo freighter\" style=\"width:100%;height:auto;max-width:100%;display:block\"><figcaption style=\"font-size:13px;color:#777;text-align:center;margin-top:6px;font-style:italic\">This is what outsize means in practice: a helicopter walked in through the nose of an An-124. No European aircraft in service can do this. Photo: U.S. Air Force<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h2 style=\"padding-top:22px\">Two doors, both expensive<\/h2>\r\n\r\n<p>The EDA was blunt about the trajectory.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<div style=\"background:#f8f9fa;border-left:4px solid #5C91FF;padding:20px 22px;margin:18px 0 24px;font-size:16px;line-height:1.7;display:flex;gap:20px;align-items:flex-start\"><div><em>&ldquo;Without action, Europe is heading for a genuine gap in strategic airlift capability. For outsize and particularly high-volume cargo, European states are almost entirely dependent on an ageing fleet.&rdquo;<\/em><div style=\"margin-top:10px;font-size:14px;color:#555\"><strong>European Defence Agency<\/strong> &mdash; Statement on the ESOCA study, September 2026 (translated)<\/div><\/div><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>Its summary of the ESOCA findings names the long-term alternatives as a deep modernisation of the An-124 fleet, or the development of a new European aircraft to replace the C-17, or both, alongside other workable options it did not specify. Details go to EU member states in Brussels in October.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>Each path has an obvious problem. Modernising An-124s means investing heavily in a Ukrainian-designed airframe whose production line no longer exists and whose average age in the Leipzig\/Halle fleet is already just under thirty-seven years. Building a European strategic airlifter means a programme measured in decades and tens of billions \u2014 the A400M was launched in the early 2000s and did not enter service until 2013, and it is the smaller, easier aircraft.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\" style=\"margin:0 0 24px;width:100%\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"skip-lazy\" data-no-lazy=\"1\" loading=\"eager\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/migflug.com\/afterburner\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/09\/luftwaffe-airbus-a400m-atlas-tactical-airlifter-in-flight.jpg\" alt=\"A German Air Force Airbus A400M Atlas turning in flight\" style=\"width:100%;height:auto;max-width:100%;display:block\"><figcaption style=\"font-size:13px;color:#777;text-align:center;margin-top:6px;font-style:italic\">The A400M is Europe\u2019s airlift workhorse and the reason the gap is not worse. It is also, in the words of the member states themselves, limited in size and payload. Photo: Wikimedia Commons<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h2 style=\"padding-top:22px\">The fleet Europe actually flies on<\/h2>\r\n\r\n<p>Antonov Airlines currently operates five An-124s out of Leipzig\/Halle. Since July 2025 a sixth Ukrainian aircraft has been sitting at the same airport: UR-82073, named <em>Be brave like Irpin<\/em>, which the airline says has been comprehensively modernised. It has not said what that involved.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>That aircraft is quietly the most interesting object in the whole debate. If a meaningful An-124 upgrade already exists and flies, the modernisation option stops being theoretical.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>One route that has closed is Airbus Beluga Transport. The company set up a commercial freight airline around the old Beluga ST fleet, aimed squarely at space and military customers, and shut it down a few years later. The original Belugas are becoming museum pieces.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<div style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;height:0;overflow:hidden;margin:24px 0\"><iframe class=\"skip-lazy\" data-no-lazy=\"1\" loading=\"eager\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/5FSyTuY1rGg\" style=\"position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;border:0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>Sam Chui\u2019s ride inside an An-124, watched more than four million times, is the best available answer to why none of this is easily replaced: the cargo bay is a hangar with wings, and the aircraft was built around it.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<h2 style=\"padding-top:22px\">What October actually decides<\/h2>\r\n\r\n<p>Not the aircraft. October is the meeting where twenty-seven governments discover how much each option costs and start arguing about who pays and whose factories build it.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>The deadline pressure is real, though. SALIS expires in the early 2030s. The Hungarian-based C-17s run out in the 2040s. A new aircraft ordered today would be lucky to fly before the first of those dates and would be in service well after the second. Europe has spent twenty years renting the capability it decided not to build. The bill for that decision now has a date on it.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><em>Sources: European Defence Agency, aeroTELEGRAPH, Airbus Defence and Space, Antonov Airlines, NATO SALIS programme documentation.<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<style>.mfq{margin:34px 0 8px}.mfq h2{font:26px\/1.3 \"Gilroy semiBold\",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:#0d1117;padding-top:22px;margin:0 0 6px}.mfq .qa details{border-top:1px solid #5C91FF;margin:0;padding:0}.mfq .qa details:last-of-type{border-bottom:1px solid #e2e7ee}.mfq .qa summary{cursor:pointer;list-style:none;display:flex;justify-content:space-between;align-items:center;gap:16px;padding:22px 26px;font:18px\/1.7 \"Gilroy semiBold\",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:#0d1117}.mfq .qa summary::-webkit-details-marker{display:none}.mfq .qa summary::after{content:\"+\";font:24px Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#3568e0;flex:0 0 auto}.mfq .qa details[open] summary::after{content:\"\\2013\"}.mfq .qa details:hover summary{color:#3568e0}.mfq .qa .a{font:16px\/1.7 \"Gilroy regular\",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:#454e5e;padding:0 26px 24px}.mfq .qa .a a{color:#3568e0}@media(max-width:680px){.mfq .qa summary{padding:18px 14px;font-size:17px}.mfq .qa .a{padding:0 14px 20px}}<\/style>\r\n\r\n\r\n<section class=\"mfq\"><h2>Frequently Asked Questions<\/h2><div class=\"qa\"><details open><summary>What is the European outsize airlift gap?<\/summary><div class=\"a\">It is the coming shortfall in European ability to fly cargo that is too large or too bulky for an A400M. The two aircraft that can do the job, the Antonov An-124 and the Boeing C-17, are both out of production, and the fleets Europe relies on are ageing with no replacement in sight.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>What is the ESOCA study?<\/summary><div class=\"a\">ESOCA stands for European System for Outsized Cargo Airlift. It is an 18-month European Defence Agency study coordinated by Airbus Defence and Space, with companies including Leonardo and Safran taking part, examining how Europe should cover outsize air cargo in the long term.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>What options did the EDA identify?<\/summary><div class=\"a\">Two principal ones, which are not mutually exclusive. The first is a deep modernisation of the existing Antonov An-124 fleet. The second is developing a new European aircraft to replace the C-17. The agency also referred to further feasible alternatives without naming them.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Why can the A400M not do the job?<\/summary><div class=\"a\">The Airbus A400M is a tactical airlifter and a capable one, but EU member states have recorded in writing that it is limited in size and payload for this role. Outsize loads such as large helicopters, heavy engineering plant and oversized vehicles simply will not fit or will not be liftable.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>What is the SALIS contract?<\/summary><div class=\"a\">SALIS is the Strategic Airlift Interim Solution, under which Antonov Airlines flies An-124s on charter for NATO member states. It has been the practical answer to the outsize gap for two decades. The contract runs out in the early 2030s, which is one reason the question has become urgent.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>How many C-17s does the EU operate?<\/summary><div class=\"a\">Three, based in Hungary and flown by a multinational unit. They are expected to reach the end of their service lives in the 2040s. Boeing ended C-17 production in 2015, so there is no route to buying more new airframes today.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>How long would a European C-17 replacement take?<\/summary><div class=\"a\">Neither the EDA nor the study has published a timeline. A clean-sheet strategic airlifter is a decade-scale programme at best, judged against the A400M, which was launched in the early 2000s and did not enter service until 2013. Cost and schedule are the open questions member states will confront in October.<\/div><\/details><\/div><\/section>\r\n\r\n\r\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"FAQPage\",\"mainEntity\":[{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What is the European outsize airlift gap?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"It is the coming shortfall in European ability to fly cargo that is too large or too bulky for an A400M. The two aircraft that can do the job, the Antonov An-124 and the Boeing C-17, are both out of production, and the fleets Europe relies on are ageing with no replacement in sight.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What is the ESOCA study?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"ESOCA stands for European System for Outsized Cargo Airlift. 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Cost and schedule are the open questions member states will confront in October.\"}}]}<\/script><div style=\"background:#f0f4ff;border-left:4px solid #5C91FF;padding:16px 20px;margin:32px 0 8px\"><p style=\"margin:0 0 8px;font-weight:600;color:#333\">Related Posts<\/p><p style=\"margin:4px 0\"><a href=\"https:\/\/migflug.com\/afterburner\/usaf-c-17-production-restart-analysis-of-alternatives-2026\/\">USAF Weighs Restarting C-17 Production: \u201cHeck Yeah, But\u2026\u201d<\/a><\/p><p style=\"margin:4px 0\"><a href=\"https:\/\/migflug.com\/afterburner\/explosive-drone-an-124-leipzig-halle-airport-2026\/\">A Bomb Drone Beside Europe\u2019s Cargo Giant<\/a><\/p><p style=\"margin:4px 0\"><a href=\"https:\/\/migflug.com\/afterburner\/an-225-mriya-largest-aircraft-ever-built\/\">The An-225 Mriya: The Largest Aircraft Ever Built<\/a><\/p><\/div>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An eighteen-month European Defence Agency study lands on two options for outsize airlift: rebuild the An-124 fleet, or design a European replacement for the C-17.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":24239110,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[664,670],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24239478","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-military-aviation","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Europe\u2019s Outsize Airlift Gap: An-124 or New C-17 | MiGFlug<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The European Defence Agency has finished its outsize airlift study. 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