Four months ago, Germany walked out of FCAS, the sixth-generation fighter it was supposed to build with France and Spain. Now Berlin is quietly looking at the other side of the Channel. According to Politico, German and British officials have begun talking about whether Germany could join GCAP, the fighter programme that Britain, Italy and Japan launched without it.

It is a remarkable turn. GCAP grew out of Britain's Tempest project, launched while London stayed outside the Franco-German effort. Now the Germans are the ones knocking on the door, and internal German documents suggest they are far from sure they want to walk through it.

What Politico reported

Politico's report, published on Sunday, draws on conversations with British and German officials and on internal German government papers. It says the talks were initiated by London. A spokesperson for the German defence ministry confirmed only that there had been "initial coordination talks" about the requirements for a sixth-generation combat system, which is about as non-committal as a ministry can be.

London, for its part, is happy to keep the door open.

A UK defence industry figure quoted in the same report was more pointed, describing GCAP as an existing programme with a 2035 timeline. Translation: anyone joining now joins a train that has already left the station, with seats, workshare and design leadership largely allocated.

Why Berlin is hesitating

The German documents, as described by Politico and earlier by the French site Meta-Defense, are sceptical. They list three main objections. GCAP is shaped by maritime requirements that suit Britain and Japan, island nations with long sea approaches, rather than the continental air war the German Air Force plans for. Germany would struggle to win a fair industrial share in a programme whose structure is already set. And the papers reportedly refer to negative experiences with BAE Systems during the Eurofighter Typhoon programme.

That last point is the delicious irony of the whole story. The Eurofighter was the last time Germany and Britain built a fighter together, alongside Italy and Spain. It worked, eventually, and the Typhoon is still the backbone of the Luftwaffe. But it was famously late, over budget and politically bruising, and nobody involved seems to have forgotten.

The Swedish-Spanish option

According to the report, the documents favour a different path: a new collaboration with Sweden and Spain. Sweden has its own next-generation fighter studies under way at Saab, and Spain was Germany's partner in FCAS until the end. On paper, such a club would give Germany what it wanted from FCAS in the first place, a leading role and a fair share of the work.

Germany has also set up Team Gen 6, a group of eight German companies, to keep sovereign fighter know-how alive while the politics are sorted out. And in the meantime, the Luftwaffe is buying the F-35A, the first of which was handed over in Fort Worth in September.

What happens next

Nothing is decided, and nobody is pretending otherwise. But the shape of the European fighter map is starting to emerge after the collapse of FCAS. France is going it alone with the Rafale and its successor plans. Britain, Italy and Japan have GCAP. Germany is shopping, with Sweden and Spain as the most likely company.

For a continent that keeps saying it wants to buy European, that is still at least two, and possibly three, sixth-generation fighters. Europe has been here before. It built the Rafale, the Typhoon and the Gripen at roughly the same time, and spent the following decades competing against itself for export orders.

Breaking Defense explains where Europe's next-generation fighter programmes stand after the collapse of FCAS.

Sources: Politico, The Aviationist, Meta-Defense, Breaking Defense, EurAsian Times