Belgium is preparing to do something no NATO country has ever done before: hand over its entire fighter fleet to a country at war. According to a report in Belgian weekly Le Vif, Defence Minister Theo Francken wants to deliver all 53 of the Belgian Air Component’s F-16 Fighting Falcons to Ukraine — not the 30 promised in 2024, but every single one.

The catch is mathematical, not political. Belgium can only give the jets away as fast as new F-35As arrive to replace them. And those F-35s, ordered years ago, are now slipping.

If the schedule holds, Kyiv would walk away with the largest single F-16 transfer of the entire war.

From 30 to 53

The original Belgian commitment, signed by Brussels and Kyiv in 2024, was for 30 Fighting Falcons. That number was already striking — most NATO donors had pledged in single digits. But the new proposal, championed by Francken inside the Belgian government, would push the entire fleet across the border to Ukraine.

Seven aircraft are slated to leave Belgium this year. Four of them are already out of operational service and currently sit on the ramp at Florennes Air Base, where Ukrainian technicians are being trained on them. Five more would follow in 2027, fourteen in 2028, and the bulk — twenty-seven — in 2029. By then, the Belgian Air Component would, in theory, be entirely F-35-equipped.

The F-35 Bottleneck

Belgium’s F-35 buy was always the spine of the whole arrangement. The plan is simple in principle: every time a new F-35 lands at Florennes, an F-16 can be released to Ukraine. The problem is that the F-35 line — and U.S. export-licence approvals — have slipped.

Government officials in Brussels have privately acknowledged the original 2028 target for full F-16 handover is no longer realistic. The current rolling estimate has the final aircraft transferring in 2029, but the timetable is described as “indicative.” A delay of even six months on the F-35 side cascades directly into a delay for Ukraine.

One detail underscores the point. The four jets already retired from the Belgian fleet aren’t waiting for F-35 replacements — they’re spares. Belgium pulled them slightly ahead of schedule specifically to give Ukrainian maintainers a head start on the type. The Belgian Air Component is, in effect, training the next generation of Ukrainian F-16 pilots and engineers on its own ramp.

A NATO First

If Francken’s plan goes through, Belgium will become the first NATO country to hand over its complete fighter fleet to a third party — not surplus, not retiring airframes, but every operational jet it owns. The Netherlands sent 24. Denmark pledged 19. Norway will eventually contribute 22. None of those countries gave everything they had.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been explicit: Kyiv needs roughly 120 F-16s to defend its airspace effectively. The combined Western pledge is currently 79. If Belgium’s full fleet is added on top of the original 30, the total climbs to 102 — still short of Zelensky’s target, but the closest Ukraine has come.

The political reality is that Francken’s proposal still has to clear Belgian cabinet, parliament, and — most importantly — the U.S. State Department, which holds export-control authority over the F-16. Washington has so far approved every NATO third-party transfer to Ukraine. Whether it would approve a transfer of this scale is the open question hanging over the entire plan.

For now, the message from Brussels is clear: Belgium is willing to fly blind for a few months in 2029 if that’s what it takes to put 53 Vipers into Ukrainian hands.

Sources: Le Vif, t-online.de, n-tv.de, watson.ch.