Most African airlines have spent the last decade trying to survive. Ethiopian Airlines has spent the last decade trying to outgrow every other airline on its continent — and then a few off it. The Addis Ababa-based carrier flies more international passenger-kilometres than every other sub-Saharan airline combined. It is the largest cargo operator in Africa. Its main hub, Bole International, now handles more transit passengers than any other airport in sub-Saharan Africa. And on 15 May 2026 the airline confirmed it is in early-stage talks with Airbus for a new widebody order on a scale that could rival its 2022 fleet renewal deal.

For a continent that aviation analysts have habitually written off, this is an extraordinary moment. Ethiopia is acting like the African answer to Singapore Airlines — and Toulouse, predictably, is paying close attention.

An African airline acting like a flag carrier

Ethiopian Airlines’ Vision 2035 plan is publicly stated and consistently delivered: 271 aircraft by 2035, against a current operational fleet of approximately 150. The airline has already firmed up 31 Airbus A350s (a mix of -900s in service and -1000s on order), 11 Boeing 787-9s, and significant orders for 737 MAX and A220 narrowbodies. A new round of widebody orders on top of that base would push Ethiopian into the same widebody fleet tier as Lufthansa or British Airways — astonishing for an airline operating from a country with a GDP per capita of roughly $1,000.

The economics work for one specific reason. Ethiopian is the connecting carrier of choice for the entire African continent. A passenger travelling from Lagos to Beijing, from Johannesburg to Mumbai, or from Luanda to Frankfurt almost certainly does it via Addis. The geography is good, the airline is professionally run, the costs are low, and the network is dense.

Why Airbus, not Boeing

Ethiopian has historically been a balanced operator, splitting fleet orders carefully between Airbus and Boeing. The current talks tilt the balance because of three constraints. First, Boeing’s 787 production line is running at capacity and delivery slots before 2030 are largely allocated. Second, the 777X programme is years behind schedule and the 777-9 is not yet certified. Third, the Airbus A350-1000 — bigger, longer-legged, with better seat-mile economics on the long thin trunk routes Ethiopian wants to add — is in production and available.

Ethiopian’s CEO, Mesfin Tasew, told Reuters that the airline is “evaluating multiple options to support Vision 2035 growth, including new widebody acquisitions across both manufacturers.” But the practical question is which manufacturer can deliver, in numbers, in the next 36–48 months. The answer points strongly to Toulouse.

“We are evaluating multiple options to support Vision 2035 growth, including new widebody acquisitions across both manufacturers — but availability of delivery slots will be the determining factor.”

Mesfin Tasew — Group CEO, Ethiopian Airlines (May 2026 statement)

What it means for African aviation

Africa’s aviation sector has spent decades fragmented, undercapitalised, and chronically loss-making. Most national carriers — South African Airways, Kenya Airways, Air Mauritius, Ghana International — have either collapsed at least once or are kept afloat by state support. Ethiopian is different. It has been profitable, in dollar terms, every year since 2002. It is one of only three African airlines rated by IATA for global safety and operational standards.

A successful widebody order in 2026 cements Ethiopian as the de facto African long-haul carrier of choice. The implications for Rwandair, Kenya Airways, and South African Airways — all of which compete on overlapping intercontinental routes — are not subtle. Africa’s long-haul aviation market is consolidating around Addis Ababa. The next twelve months will tell us how much further that consolidation goes.

Sources: Scramble, Reuters, ch-aviation.