Iraq is about to buy French. After years of relying almost exclusively on American fighter jets, Baghdad is in the final stages of negotiations with Paris for 14 Dassault Rafale F4 fighters — the latest and most capable variant of France’s omnirole combat aircraft. The deal, which has been under negotiation since 2022, is expected to close in the first half of 2026. It includes ten single-seat Rafale C and four twin-seat Rafale B airframes, all newly produced. The package also covers long-range air-to-air missiles — including the MICA NG and the Meteor, one of the longest-range air-to-air weapons in any Western inventory — along with AASM precision-guided bombs. For Iraq, this is not merely an aircraft purchase. It is a strategic pivot.

Why Baghdad Wants the Rafale

Iraq currently operates the F-16IQ, a specialised export variant of the Block 52 Viper. The jets were delivered starting in 2014 and have been the backbone of the Iraqi Air Force’s strike capability ever since. But the fleet has suffered attrition, maintenance has proved challenging, and the political relationship with Washington — upon which spare parts and upgrades depend — has been complicated by Iraq’s parallel ties with Iran. The Rafale offers Baghdad something the F-16 cannot: strategic diversification. By operating both American and French combat aircraft, Iraq reduces its dependence on any single supplier. If Washington imposes conditions on future support, Baghdad has an alternative. If Paris proves difficult, the F-16s remain. The Rafale F4 standard also brings capabilities that the F-16IQ lacks. The Meteor beyond-visual-range missile, jointly developed by MBDA, provides a no-escape zone that exceeds anything in Iraq’s current arsenal. The AASM family of precision-guided weapons — from the 250-kilogramme variant to the 1,000-kilogramme penetrator — gives Iraqi pilots a deep strike toolkit that is fully independent of American supply chains.

The Airspace Problem

The strategic context behind the purchase is blunt. Iraq’s airspace has become one of the most contested in the Middle East. Iranian ballistic missiles have overflown Iraqi territory during strikes on Israel. American and coalition aircraft operate from Iraqi bases. Turkish jets conduct regular cross-border strikes against Kurdish targets in northern Iraq. Baghdad has limited ability to control any of it. The F-16IQ fleet, while capable in the air-to-ground role, was not designed or equipped for high-end air superiority missions against fourth- or fifth-generation threats. The Rafale, armed with the Meteor, gives Iraq a credible deterrent against uninvited overflights — a capability that is as much about sovereignty as it is about combat. French analysts have noted that the Rafale’s air-to-ground strike portfolio was a decisive factor in the negotiations. The ability to deploy precision weapons across a wide target set — from hardened bunkers to mobile launchers — addresses Iraq’s most pressing operational requirement: defending its own territory without relying entirely on coalition support.

Dassault’s Growing Order Book

For Dassault Aviation, Iraq joins a rapidly expanding list of Rafale customers. India announced a $39 billion order for 114 Rafales just days ago. The United Arab Emirates, Greece, Croatia, Egypt, and Qatar already operate or have ordered the type. Indonesia and Saudi Arabia are in various stages of discussion. The Rafale production line at Mérignac, near Bordeaux, is running at full capacity. Dassault delivered 15 Rafales in 2025 and is ramping to 20 per year to meet the surge in international demand. The Iraqi order, at 14 aircraft, is modest by comparison with India’s — but it adds yet another Middle Eastern operator to a jet that is quietly becoming the most successful European combat aircraft of its generation. For France’s defence-industrial strategy — and for Fortuné’s admittedly biased appreciation of French aerospace engineering — the Rafale’s commercial trajectory is a vindication. The jet that NATO partners once dismissed as too expensive and too French is now outselling every competitor except the F-35. Sources: Militarnyi, Army Recognition, AeroTime, Defence Security Asia