What the Footage Shows
The clearest video, filmed from roughly two kilometers away, captures the Super Hornet in a left-hand banking turn at extremely low altitude. The telltale exhaust gases of the Vulcan cannon are visible — a brief, pale streak beneath the aircraft — followed moments later by the distinct sound of the gun reaching the camera. Then comes the missile. A bright flash erupts just aft of the jet, and the elongated shape of the detonation strongly suggests a proximity fuse — the warhead sensed it was close enough and triggered. Fragments spray outward. For a fraction of a second, it looks like a kill. But from a second angle — a more frontal perspective shared by the GeoConfirmed team — the Super Hornet emerges from the blast cloud flying straight and level. No smoke trail. No debris falling. No spiraling descent. The jet simply continues its mission.Iran Claims a Kill. CENTCOM Says Otherwise.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps wasted no time. Within hours, the IRGC issued a statement claiming that “the enemy F-18 fighter jet was accurately hit in the sky of Chabahar by missiles from the IRGC Navy’s advanced modern air defense system” and that the aircraft subsequently “crashed in the Indian Ocean.” U.S. Central Command’s response was measured but unambiguous: “No U.S. fighter aircraft have been shot down by Iran.” Many observers noted the careful wording on both sides. CENTCOM said “shot down,” not “hit.” And Iran’s track record of inflating claims — including a previous false report of an F/A-18 downed near the Strait of Hormuz — has eroded its credibility on such announcements.The MANPADS Problem Nobody Solved
What makes this incident alarming is not what the missile did, but what the pilot apparently could not see coming. Defense Express reported that the F/A-18E/F is not equipped with a dedicated missile launch detection system for infrared threats like MANPADS. Its AN/ALR-67(V)3 radar warning receiver picks up radar-guided threats — but a heat-seeking shoulder-fired missile generates no radar signal to detect. The pilot’s left-hand turn, which may have saved the aircraft, appears to have been a routine course change rather than a deliberate evasive maneuver. In other words: the pilot may not have known the missile was coming. “The pilot was simply lucky,” the Defense Express analysis concluded, “or potentially warned by another pilot, wingman or lead.”“In war, whichever side may call itself the victor, there are no winners, but all are losers.”
— Neville Chamberlain
English
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