Less than two hours before his own deadline expired, President Trump stepped back from the brink. On Monday evening, with B-1B Lancers and B-52s already airborne from RAF Fairford and carrier strike groups positioned across the Persian Gulf, Washington and Tehran agreed to a two-week ceasefire — the first pause in 39 days of the most intense American air campaign since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

The deal is simple on paper: the United States and Israel stop bombing. Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz for safe commercial passage. Both sides sit down in Islamabad on Friday to talk about something more permanent.

In practice, nothing about it is simple.

From Annihilation to Negotiation

Hours before the agreement, Trump’s rhetoric had reached its most extreme point of the entire conflict. In a social media post that rattled capitals worldwide, the president warned that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran did not comply with his demands. The threat — interpreted as a possible precursor to strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure, power plants, or population centres — drew immediate condemnation from European allies and the United Nations.

Then Pakistan intervened. Prime Minister Sharif’s government, which shares a 959-kilometre border with Iran and has quietly maintained backchannel communications throughout the conflict, brokered a framework that gave both sides an exit ramp. Trump credited Islamabad publicly, a rare diplomatic nod that underscores Pakistan’s growing relevance in the region.

What Iran Wants — and What It Will Get

Iran’s 10-point proposal reads more like a wish list than a negotiating position. Among its demands: withdrawal of all U.S. combat forces from regional bases, the lifting of every sanction, release of frozen Iranian assets abroad, and full payment for war damages. Iran also wants a formal protocol for “controlled passage” through the Strait — language that implies Tehran intends to maintain some degree of oversight over the waterway even after reopening it.

Western analysts consider most of these demands non-starters. But the fact that Iran’s Supreme National Security Council publicly accepted the ceasefire — and hinted it could be extended beyond two weeks — suggests Tehran is feeling the pressure of five and a half weeks of relentless aerial bombardment. Iran’s air defences have been systematically dismantled, its nuclear enrichment facilities struck by B-2-delivered bunker busters, and its IRGC command infrastructure shattered.

The ceasefire buys Iran breathing room. Whether it buys peace depends on what happens in Islamabad.

What the Ceasefire Means for Air Operations

For the air crews who have sustained Epic Fury’s around-the-clock tempo — tanker pilots flying 18-hour sorties, bomber crews on 30-plus-hour missions from Whiteman and Fairford, fighter wings rotating through Gulf bases — the pause is a chance to reset. Maintenance backlogs have mounted. Precision munition stockpiles, particularly JDAMs and JASSMs, have been drawn down at rates not seen since the opening nights of Operation Iraqi Freedom.

But a ceasefire is not a peace deal. The aircraft will stay in theatre. The carrier strike groups will remain on station. If talks collapse in Islamabad, the air campaign can resume within hours — and both sides know it.

The Broader Picture

Markets reacted with relief. Oil prices plunged 13% overnight as traders priced in the possibility of Hormuz reopening — the strait’s closure had sent energy prices to their highest levels since the 2022 spike. S&P 500 futures pointed to a 2% gain at the open, and shipping companies began cautiously repositioning vessels for potential transit.

Kuwait International Airport, shut since late February after repeated Iranian drone strikes, remains closed — but Kuwaiti officials have floated mid-April as a possible reopening date if the ceasefire holds. For the millions of travellers and billions in trade disrupted by the conflict, these two weeks represent the first tangible hope that the region’s worst military crisis in a generation might end without escalating further.

Two weeks is not much time. But it is the first pause this war has known.

Sources: NPR, NBC News, Time, PBS, Al Jazeera, CNBC, Axios