Embraer has spent the past five years quietly assembling the most surprising tactical-airlifter sales story of the decade. The Brazilian KC-390 Millennium has outsold every clean-sheet competitor in its weight class, picked up eight European air forces in succession, and is now positioned to add Greece to its growing roll. Hints dropped this week by Embraer Defence & Security suggest a Hellenic Air Force order is months away.

If it lands, Greece becomes the latest NATO operator of the C-390. And another European Air Force quietly puts the C-130 out to grass.

A Brazilian jet that quietly killed the Hercules

The Lockheed Martin C-130 Hercules has owned the tactical airlift market for seven decades. When the KC-390 first flew in 2015, defence analysts treated it as a curiosity — a one-off Brazilian programme that might find a few regional buyers. Eleven years later, the numbers tell a different story. The aircraft outperforms the C-130J on speed, payload-range and unit cost. Embraer claims markedly lower direct operating costs than the Hercules. And in Europe, where the C-130 fleet is ageing fast, the C-390 has won every head-to-head competition since 2021.

Hungary ordered back in 2020; the Netherlands, Austria and the Czech Republic signed in quick succession during 2023–2024, and Slovakia has selected the type and is negotiating for three. Sweden signed in October 2025 with a four-aircraft order. Lithuania confirmed three in mid-2025. Each contract closes another door for the C-130J in Europe; each one expands Embraer’s training, MRO and supply-chain footprint on the continent. The Brazilian airframer now has a more relevant European industrial presence than Boeing’s defence arm.

Why Greece

The Hellenic Air Force operates an ageing fleet of C-130 Hercules and C-27J Spartans, both fleets struggling with availability. Athens has been studying a replacement for both since 2023. Local industrial participation is the headline requirement — the country has been clear that any tactical-airlifter buy must include serious offset work for Hellenic Aerospace Industries (HAI), which has a long-standing relationship with Embraer on the Super Tucano programme.

The Greek calculation will also factor in regional posture. Turkey operates a large C-130 and Airbus A400M fleet; Greece prefers, on principle, not to fly the same hardware as Ankara. An Embraer-built jet, with local HAI work, gives Athens both a fleet-modernisation answer and a quiet industrial-political differentiator from its eastern neighbour.

What the order would mean for the C-390 programme

Greece is likely to start with three aircraft, with an option for three more in a second phase. That would bring the European total to roughly 30 confirmed C-390s. Embraer has been expanding the assembly line at Gavião Peixoto, São Paulo, to handle the surge; the company has been steadily raising annual output to handle the growing order book.

The unsung detail is how steadily Boeing’s presence in the European tactical-airlift segment has been hollowed out. Without the C-130J winning in Europe and without Boeing replacing it with a fresh design, the U.S. industrial position in this category has weakened materially since 2022. Embraer — with Boeing’s own marketing help — is the practical beneficiary. France, Germany, Italy still fly the Airbus A400M. Everyone else, increasingly, is going Brazilian.

Sources: Aviation Week, FlightGlobal, Embraer Defence & Security press release, Defense News, Hellenic Aerospace Industries.