Quick Facts
- Source: Air & Space Forces Magazine reporting on new USAF wargame
- Scenario: U.S.–China conflict over Taiwan Strait
- Variables tested: Different aircraft mixes (fighters, bombers, tankers, CCAs)
- Key platforms evaluated: F-35, F-15EX, B-21 Raider, CCA drone wingmen
- Context: Results directly inform USAF budget and procurement decisions
The Tyranny of Distance
A war over Taiwan would be fundamentally different from anything the U.S. Air Force has fought since 1945. The distances are enormous. From the nearest major American air base in Japan, it is roughly 1,200 miles to the Taiwan Strait. From Guam, it is over 1,700. From Hawaii, it is 5,000. Those numbers dictate everything. Fighters with short legs need tanker support to reach the fight — and tankers are slow, vulnerable, and limited in number. Bombers can reach from further away but carry finite weapons loads. And all of it must operate within range of China's vast arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles, which can strike air bases across the western Pacific. The wargame forced planners to confront these constraints honestly. How many tankers do you need to keep a fighter force in the air over Taiwan? How many bombers can you generate per day from bases that may be cratered by Chinese missiles? And what happens when you add hundreds of autonomous Collaborative Combat Aircraft to the mix?
Mass Versus Quality
The wargame tested the central tension in modern air warfare: do you build a smaller force of exquisite, expensive platforms — or a larger force of cheaper, more expendable ones? The F-35A Lightning II is the Air Force's premier fighter, but at $80 million per copy and $42,000 per flight hour, you cannot afford to buy or fly as many as you might need. The F-15EX Eagle II is cheaper to operate and carries a massive weapons load, but it is not stealthy and would face serious survivability challenges in a contested Chinese air defense environment. The B-21 Raider changes the equation with its long range and stealth, potentially allowing strikes from bases outside the reach of Chinese missiles. But the fleet is small and will remain so for years. Enter the Collaborative Combat Aircraft — autonomous drone wingmen designed to fly alongside manned fighters, absorbing risk and extending the reach of human pilots. At a fraction of the cost of a manned fighter, CCAs offer the one thing the Air Force desperately needs in a Pacific conflict: mass. More shooters, more sensors, more targets for Chinese air defenses to deal with.What the Simulation Revealed
The specific results remain classified, but the broad conclusions are clear from reporting and public statements by Air Force leadership. Force mixes that relied heavily on CCAs consistently performed better than those that depended solely on manned aircraft. The ability to generate large numbers of autonomous platforms — even relatively simple ones — provided a decisive advantage in scenarios where Chinese missile salvos could suppress or destroy forward air bases. Tanker availability emerged as a critical chokepoint. In every scenario, the force ran short of aerial refueling capacity before it ran short of fighters. The implication is stark: buying more fighters without buying more tankers — or extending fighter range through other means — produces diminishing returns. Long-range strike from the B-21 proved essential in the early days of a conflict, when forward bases might be unavailable. But the simulation also showed that bombers alone cannot win the fight. Air superiority over the strait requires fighters, and fighters require tankers, and all of it requires bases that can absorb punishment and keep launching sorties. The wargame's bottom line is uncomfortable for everyone: no single platform wins this war. Only the right combination — stealth bombers for the opening punch, tanker-supported fighters for sustained operations, and masses of CCAs to overwhelm Chinese defenses — gives the Air Force a credible path to victory. Sources: Air & Space Forces MagazineRelated Questions
Why is a war with China over Taiwan so hard for the U.S. Air Force?
Distance is the central problem. From the nearest major American base in Japan it is roughly 1,200 miles to the Taiwan Strait, over 1,700 from Guam and 5,000 from Hawaii. Short-legged fighters need aerial refueling to reach the fight, while everything operates within range of China's huge ballistic and cruise missile arsenal.
What is a Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA)?
A Collaborative Combat Aircraft is an autonomous drone wingman designed to fly alongside crewed fighters, absorbing risk and extending a pilot's reach. At a fraction of the cost of a manned jet, autonomous drone wingmen give the Air Force mass: more shooters, sensors and targets for enemy defences to handle.
How much does an F-35 cost to buy and operate?
The F-35A Lightning II costs roughly $80 million per aircraft and about $42,000 per flight hour. That expense is why the Air Force cannot field it in the huge numbers a Pacific war would demand, pushing planners toward cheaper, more expendable platforms to provide combat mass.
Which aircraft would the U.S. use in a war over Taiwan?
Air Force wargames evaluated a mix of the F-35A, the F-15EX Eagle II, the B-21 Raider stealth bomber and large numbers of autonomous CCA drones. Each offers a different balance of stealth, range, weapons load and cost across the vast distances of the Pacific theatre.
Why are aerial tankers so important in a Pacific war?
Tankers are the limiting factor. In every wargame scenario the force ran short of aerial refueling capacity before it ran short of fighters, making tanker availability a critical chokepoint. Buying more fighters without more tankers does not generate more combat power over Taiwan.
What is the B-21 Raider?
The B-21 Raider is a long-range stealth bomber able to strike from bases outside the reach of most Chinese missiles. It changes the Pacific equation, though the fleet will remain small for years. A B-21 Raider was recently flown by an operational pilot during testing.
What did the Air Force wargame conclude about drones versus manned aircraft?
Force mixes that relied heavily on autonomous Collaborative Combat Aircraft consistently outperformed those built only around manned fighters. Generating large numbers of drones — even simple ones — proved decisive when Chinese missile salvos could suppress or destroy forward air bases.
What is the 'tyranny of distance' in Pacific warfare?
It describes how the enormous distances of the Pacific dictate strategy. Bases are 1,200 to 5,000 miles from Taiwan, so fighters depend on scarce tankers, bombers carry finite weapons, and forward airfields sit within range of Chinese missiles.
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